Intel today hosted its 2022 Investor Meeting and outlined key elements of the company’s strategy and path to long-term growth during an era of unprecedented demand for semiconductors. The event included a series of announcements at both a corporate and individual business unit level, including more details of the company’s Smart Capital strategy, product roadmaps across its new reporting segments and key execution milestones.
“The continued proliferation of technology is driving sustained, long-term demand for semiconductors, creating a $1 trillion market opportunity by 2030,” said Pat Gelsinger, Intel chief executive officer. “With that opportunity in mind, today we outlined our strategy and roadmap for accelerating to 10%-12% year-over-year revenue growth by 2026 by doubling down on innovation, driving even deeper collaboration with our customers and partners, and leveraging our core strengths to successfully grow traditional markets and disrupt new ones. Our goals are ambitious, but I’m confident we have the right strategy and right team to achieve them and to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.”
At today’s event, Intel provided its outlook for the full-year 2022. For 2022, Intel expects revenue of $76 billion; non-GAAP gross margin of 52%; non-GAAP EPS of $3.50; and net capital expenditures of approximately $27 billion. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be negative $1 billion to $2 billion as the company ramps its investments to accelerate long-term growth.
Longer term, Intel expects year-over-year revenue growth moving to the mid- to high-single digits in 2023 and 2024, with year-over-year growth ramping to 10%-12% by 2026.
“We expect to deliver the growth targets outlined today through our reinvigorated focus on large and growing markets, investments in our technology roadmap, and disciplined fiscal approach,” said David Zinsner, Intel chief financial officer. “At the same time, we will combine financial discipline with a steady focus on revenue growth, gross margin expansion and strong cash flow. This approach gives us confidence in our ability to execute our plan and deliver compelling shareholder returns.”
As Intel’s investments begin to deliver faster growth, gross margins are expected to expand from the 51%-53% range over the next three years to 54%-58% in 2025 and 2026. In addition to faster revenue growth, the company sees several opportunities to expand gross margin by 2025. These include executing the company’s investments to deliver five nodes in four years to regain technology leadership, better sales mix of leadership products and scaling of higher-growth emerging businesses. Intel also intends to maintain strong cost discipline to identify further cost efficiencies to drive gross margin expansion and deliver leadership products with best-in-class cost.
Underpinning Intel’s long-term growth plan is its Smart Capital strategy, which aims to help fund growth while creating flexibility and delivering higher returns on investments. Under the Smart Capital strategy, Intel intends to employ a disciplined approach to its investments and leverage government incentives, customer participation and other creative partnerships as offsets to capital spending. This will allow the company to adjust quickly to opportunities in the market and gain share while managing its margin structure and capital spending. Key elements of Smart Capital include:
Together, Intel’s Smart Capital actions provide flexibility, reduce its overall gross capital needs and act as a tailwind to gross margin.
Intel today provided substantial updates across its six distinct but complementary business units that enable the company to capture growth in both its large traditional markets and high-growth emerging markets. This includes planned growth in the client, data center, network and edge markets based on increasingly competitive roadmaps, and the ability to disrupt important emerging markets with focused investments in accelerated compute and graphics, foundry, mobility and auto. In the auto market, the company remains on track to take Mobileye public in the U.S. in mid-2022 via an initial public offering, where Intel will remain the majority owner of Mobileye. This structure gives Intel multiple engines for growth and an inherent flexibility in how it invests. Intel’s new reporting segments, which will be presented beginning with its first-quarter 2022 results, will also provide shareholders with more transparency, giving them direct visibility into the company’s progress in each area.
A replay of the livestream of the mainstage sessions at Intel’s 2022 Investor Meeting can be found on the Intel Investor Meeting press kit, along with recordings of the morning business sessions and copies of all of the presentations.